Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania

Spatial simulation for translating from land use to land cover

An approach to simulating land-cover patterns based on historical land-use maps and forecasts based on models and planning documents is described and demonstrated. The approach uses stochastic spatial simulation to generate land-cover patterns on the basis of a land-use map and stated translation rules. The translation rules take the form of (1) a table that summarizes the proportions of each l...

Land use, water and Mediterranean landscapes: modelling long-term dynamics of complex socio-ecological systems.

The evolution of Mediterranean landscapes during the Holocene has been increasingly governed by the complex interactions of water and human land use. Different land-use practices change the amount of water flowing across the surface and infiltrating the soil, and change water's ability to move surface sediments. Conversely, water amplifies the impacts of human land use and extends the ecologica...

Ecological and economic modelling in agricultural land use scenarios

Agricultural production and its associated land use comprise the most important key factor regarding biodiversity and environmental impact within the wider countryside in Denmark. Currently, a number of land use changes are implemented in environmental action plans, such as afforestation, restoring wetlands and protection of drinking water catchments. Growing attention is put on the potential o...

Land-cover and Land-use Mapping

Modeling Land-use and Land-cover Change

Models are used in a variety of fields, including land change science, to better understand the dynamics of systems, to develop hypotheses that can be tested empirically, and to make predictions and/or evaluate scenarios for use in assessment activities. Modeling is an important component of each of the three foci outlined in the science plan of the Land-use and -cover change (LUCC) project (Tu...